Autonomous Driving’s Future: Convenient and Connected

Prepared by McKinsey Center for Future Mobility

This report is a collaborative effort by Johannes Deichmann, Eike Ebel, Kersten Heineke, Ruth Heuss, Martin Kellner, and Fabian Steiner, representing views from the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.

By 2035, autonomous driving could create $300 billion to $400 billion in revenue. New research reveals what’s needed to win in the fast-changing passenger car market. 

The dream of seeing fleets of driverless cars efficiently delivering people to their destinations has captured consumers’ imaginations and fueled billions of dollars in investment in recent years. But even after some setbacks that have pushed out timelines for autonomous-vehicle (AV) launches and delayed customer adoption, the mobility community still broadly agrees that autonomous driving (AD) has the potential to transform transportation, consumer behavior, and society at large. 

Because of this, AD could create massive value for the auto industry, generating hundreds of billions of dollars before the end of this decade, McKinsey research shows.1 To realize the consumer and commercial benefits of autonomous driving, however, auto OEMs and suppliers may need to develop new sales and business strategies, acquire new technological capabilities, and address concerns about safety. 

This report, which focuses on the private-passenger-car segment of the AD market, examines the potential for autonomous technologies to disrupt the passenger car market. It also outlines critical success factors that every auto OEM, supplier, and tech provider should know in order to win in the AD passenger car market. (Other McKinsey publications explore the potential of shared AVs such as robo-taxis and robo-shuttles, as well as autonomous trucks and autonomous last-mile delivery.)