Macroeconomic Impacts of Automated Driving Systems in Long-Haul Trucking

U.S. Department of Transportation Intelligence Transportation Systems Joint Program Office

Volpe National Transportation Systems Center; Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

This report presents an analysis of the potential macroeconomic impacts resulting from the adoption of higher level automated driving systems (ADS) of the long-haul trucking industry in the United States. The analysis uses USAGEHwy, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy that includes detail on transportation related industries including for-hire and in-house trucking. Three time profiles for the adoption of automation are explored. The results show that automation of the long-haul trucking industry is expected to bring welfare enhancing productivity enhancements to the economy. Assuming that occupational turnover rates remain as they are, these positive economic impacts would not be accompanied by forced-lay-offs under the slow and medium adoption scenarios. Only under the fast adoption scenario are there short-lived, small magnitude lay-offs.